94% of Hormuz transits are now outside the IMO lane — what that means for risk assessment

AI Summary

In 2026, 94% of vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz have bypassed the formal IMO shipping lane, shifting the baseline for risk assessment. This widespread deviation complicates compliance team evaluations and impacts maritime security monitoring in a critical geopolitical chokepoint.

When almost every vessel avoids the formal shipping lane, deviation stops being a red flag. It becomes the baseline. And that creates a serious problem for compliance teams who have built their assessments around it. Between 1 March and 19 May 2026, Kpler tracked 895 vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz. Only 58 of ...