China’s 2026 Thermal Coal Imports: 295 Mt Hinges on Winter Restocking

AI Summary

The outlook for China’s 2026 seaborne thermal coal imports remains 285–310 million tonnes, with 295 million tonnes as the conditional central estimate. Reaching that estimate depends on winter restocking, but procurement data available in early November had not yet confirmed the additional volumes needed.

We retain a range of 285–310 million tonnes (Mt) for China’s 2026 seaborne thermal coal imports, with 295 Mt as our conditional central case. Extending October’s arrival pace gives 288.96 Mt. Winter restocking could close the 6.04 Mt gap. As at 2 November, the procurement evidence had yet to establish that extra volume. By 30 ...