IEA Warns Renewed U.S.-Iran Conflict Could Upend Oil Surplus Forecast

AI Summary

The International Energy Agency warned that renewed conflict between the U.S. and Iran could disrupt the current oil surplus forecast despite tentative recovery in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have dropped significantly following a momentary easing between the two countries but tensions risk reversing this trend.

Despite the tentative recovery of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the first build-up in global stocks since the war began, this week’s re-escalation of the U.S.-Iran hostilities could flip the outlook for an oil market surplus for next year, the International Energy Agency said on Friday. Oil prices have plunged since the United States and Iran signed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) in the middle of June, with North Sea Dated prices down by $31 per barrel in June to $68 a barrel by early July, their lowest since January and…