Major upside risks remain for oil and product pricing in H2

AI Summary

Oil and product prices face major upside risks in the second half of the year despite perceptions that Strait of Hormuz traffic has normalized. Actual shipping levels remain below pre-crisis norms, indicating continued volatility and geopolitical sensitivities.

Financial markets remain convinced that transits through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to normal levels. Unfortunately, the real position is more complex, as the Reuters chart confirms: “Recent data shows traffic picking up again, with dozens of ​vessels making crossings on some days, although levels remain well below pre-crisis norms and prone to sudden ...