Russia Turns Asia’s Oil Shock Into an Indonesian Opening

AI Summary

Russia has become a key supplier of crude oil to Asia following a disruption in Middle Eastern oil supplies due to the US-Israel conflict with Iran. The US granted waivers to allow the purchase of Russian oil, recognizing its necessity to balance the Asian oil market during this crisis.

Russia has emerged as one of the clearest commercial beneficiaries of the US-Israel war with Iran. Before March 2026, buying Russian crude was widely treated as a sanctions risk that only Chinese and, to a lesser extent, Indian private companies could comfortably absorb. The first US waiver for Russian barrels, announced on March 12, changed that calculation. It showed that, during a major Middle Eastern supply disruption, Asia could not balance its oil market without Russian crude, and even Washington was aware of the that. Successive waiver extensions…